Tuesday, May 3, 2016

SITTING ON DYNAMITE


It was 1 A.M. and the date was 26th December, 2004. A powerful earthquake with an intensity of 8.9 shook the sea bed near Sumatra. Seismographs even in India recorded the disturbance and its epicenter. It was far away from Indian main land. So, nobody predicted its after effects and kept sleeping in a routine way. At about 6 A.M. the killer wave struck the Indian coasts in the form of Tsunami. Before that, it had already struck Andaman & Nikobar islands, Indonesia, Sumatra and Thailand. Nobody had predicted the aftereffects of such and earthquake to be that much disastrous even at such a far off distant places. Tsunami killed near about 3 lac people and rendered 50 lac people homeless. There was no warning system, no alert groups or even any awareness among the masses. At the same time there are certain tribal islands where the inhabitants rescued themselves and faced very less life and property losses. They were self-sufficient and were trained in them to face such traditional disasters.
Mostly, disasters are sudden, strike quickly and affect a large number of lives, render a large number of people homeless and may bring more disasters as its after effects. World Health Organization (WHO) defines disaster as 'any occurrence that cause damage, economic destruction, loss of human life and deterioration in health and health services on a scale sufficient to warrant an extraordinary response from outside the effected community or area'. Disasters are either natural, such as floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, draughts, epidemics or human made such as riots, conflicts, wars, refugee situations, industrial or traffic accidents, etc. or hybrid which are caused by human intervention with nature such as deforestation causing landslides and soil erosion.
During the last few decades, with the development of science and technology, human intervention with the nature has increased. As a result, an unending number of non-traditional disasters are adding up their names in the list of ' causes of heavy destruction'. The traditional disasters follow some pattern in their re-occurrence but the non-traditional disasters are always new and do not follow any pattern. Till a few decades ago nobody had the names such as WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction), chemical warfare, Biological warfare, Nuclear warfare, toxic gas leakage from industries killing lacs of people, etc?
The disturbing fact is that in the South Asian region, where poverty, deprivation and deaths due to disasters are common features of life, India continues remain to one of the worst effected countries. In fact, the frequency of all the categories of traditional and non-traditional disasters is escalating and adding health, social and economic burden of an already impoverished people. In many developing countries there can be another category of disasters: POLICY DISASTERS specially for south Asian countries which are caused due to the negligence on the part of policy makers such as lack of national policies to restrict the sale of hazardous and harmful drugs, free sale of tobacco and liquor, banned pesticides, excessive displacement of people by development projects, etc. Lack of adequate measures to contain the unrestricted sale of tobacco and liquor has led to a calamitous situation. Each year, tobacco causes 3.5 million deaths worldwide, or about 10,000 deaths per day. One million of these deaths occur in developing countries. By 2020, it is predicted that tobacco will become the leading cause of death and disability, killing more than ten million people annually, thus causing more deaths worldwide than HIV, tuberculosis, maternal mortality, motor vehicle accidents, etc.
In India, the contingency action plans of government and various NGO's for dealing with disasters is more reactive than proactive. It emphasizes relief, not reduction. Lack of proper preparedness is the most important factor for heavy casualty during the disasters in India. The 1993 Marathwada earthquake in India left over 10,000 dead and destroyed houses and other properties of 200,000 households. However, the technically much more powerful Los Angles earthquake of 1971 (taken as a benchmark in America in any debate on the much apprehended seismic vulnerability of California) left only 55 dead. Recently, on 20th March, 2005, a powerful earthquake measuring 7.1 in Richter scale, struck Japan, but it caused comparatively very less loss of property and left only 1 dead. Can you imagine the degree of loss of life and property, if such an earthquake strikes our cities in India?
Disasters become worse when common people and authorities of the state vulnerable to them do not know how to get out or harms or what protective measures should be taken. This ignorance may not necessarily be a function of poverty, but is due to lack of awareness of what measures can be taken to build safe structures on safe location and poor coordination among different departments concerned with planning and constructions and institutions dealing with such calamities. For a long time the cause and effect relationship between disasters and social and economic development was ignored. Ministries of planning and Finance and other development planners did not concern themselves with disasters. At best, the development planners hoped that, disasters will not occur. Even if it happens, they will most effectively be handled by relief from donor countries and relief organizations. Development programmes are mostly not assessed in context of the disasters, neither from the effect of disaster on development programs increases the potential risk of a disaster. Disasters are seen in the context of emergency responses and not as a part of development planning. When a disaster occurs, the responsibility is directed to emergency needs and cleaning up. The post-disaster environment is also seen to be too turbulent to promote institutional changes aimed at promoting long term developments. Decision makers who ignore these relationships between disasters and development do a dis-service to the people who place their trust in them. Take the case of terrible Uphar Cinema fire tragedy in June, 1997 in South Delhi. Just weeks before the tragedy occurred the theatre had been renovated lavishly with combustible plastics and plywood and granted clearance by Municipal Corporation of Delhi. When a stampede occurred, it was found that the exit doors were locked from outside and that the hall had no emergency exits or fire escapes. The tragedy consumed the lives of 60 persons as a result of asphyxiation and jumping off the building.
On the midnight of 2-3 December 1981, the worst industrial disaster of the last century was caused by Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) in Bhopal, a city with one million people. Over 40 tones of methyl isocyanides (MIC) and other lethal gases including hydrogen cyanide (HCN) leaked from UCC's pesticide factory at the northern end of the city killing over 500,000 people. Even the research findings on chromosomal aberrations suggest that future generations of survivors will possibly inherit the savages of the toxins.
At the time of gas leakage, a heavy panic and chaos was created. People started running here and there and were got caught up by the killer gas. Had the people knew that MIC is a water absorbent gas (Water is the best absorbent), they could have used wet cloths or towels on their face and could have moved themselves in the direction opposite to wind flow and thus come out of the gas clouds. In this way a large number of deaths could have been averted. At the same time, had the administration been aware along with the people regarding the disasters most of the lives could have been saved.
Now a days, the terrorists organizations all over the world have very well understood that it is very difficult for them to win over by means of conventional warfare. Some of the non-state actors are also moving towards nuclear, chemical and biological warfare policies. In spite of chemical weapons convention (CWC) at the conference of Disarmaments, Geneva (1927), weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are being deliberately used by various agencies and terrorism sponsoring states. While creating a nuclear disaster is very difficult as it requires a large amount of funds, technology and is also very difficult to hide. But using chemical and biological agents as weapons of mass destruction are comparatively cheap and easy and are also known as poor man's weapons. Terrorists are also using many improvised means and cause non-traditional disaster to create threat and panic. On 11th September, 2001, hijacked aero plans were used as chemical bombs to destroy World Trade Tower in New York City and was used as a weapon of Mass Destruction. The heat produced due to the burning of fuel of the aeroplans melted the reinforced structural elements of the strong by built building of World Trade Tower. The terrorists or states may also use many chemical agents like nerve agents, blister agents, chocking agents etc. as means of chemical warfare and can cause mass casualties and create panic.
Hardly had America recovered from the attacks on the World Trade Center Towers, a more confusing and frightening, situation emerged. Letters containing finely spored, dry powdered anthrax were being circulated in the US mail. Anthrax is killer bacteria which after reaching the blood stream produce toxins which cause the victims to go into toxic shock and die. This biological warfare involves the deliberate spreading of disease in human, animals and plants by introducing living micro organisms into the victim, that multiply within their hosts. One can guess the number of casualties that can occur if the water supply system of our cities are contaminated by some biological agent and how much we are vulnerable to such an attack. The cause of the outbreak of plague in India in 1994 (Surat) and again in 2002 (Himachal) is still debatable, weather it was caused by intrastate tensions (biological warfare) or was it natural. The cause of SARS in China has the same thing in common with the cause of plague in India.
After the Bhuj earthquake, a review of the disaster management mechanism was carried out by the government of India and an integrated administrative machinery for management of disasters at the national, state, district and sub district level was formed. The basis responsibility of undertaking rescue, relief and rehabilitation measures in the events of disasters, as at present, is that of the state governments concerned. The central government supplements the efforts of the states by providing financial and logistic support.
It was decided that at national level the subject of Disaster Management be transferred from Ministry of Agriculture to Ministry of Home Affairs. At state level disaster Management plans are to be drafted under the supervision of the Chief Secretary, which are to be updated once in a year.
At district level, Collector or DM has been given the responsibility of Incident Commander during any disaster in his district. Under him is a Disaster Management Cell, which works in coordination with Civil Defence, various other departments, NGO's and local volunteers.
At sub district level, block disaster management plans are to be drawn under the supervision of District Magistrate/Collector and to include mitigation, preparedness and response by the Block Development Administration. But this organization structure has always remained weak and has never been given proper attention due to the involvement local agencies in other portfolios which are considered more important by the district administration. Moreover, the policy on disasters is based only on the incident response system and not on the preparedness. At the time of an incident, a large number of agencies come out of darkness and start collecting money and resources from common people in the name of relief and helping disaster effected victims. There is no policy or procedure to check the authenticity of these agencies nor any audit is done on their collections.
Observing all these ground realities, there is a dire need of awakening and development of preparedness planning's by the government, NGOs and other Disaster Management agencies to mitigate and cope up with the disasters, after proper analysis of the causes of the failures of rescue operations. The administration should always keep into consideration the vulnerability of disasters associated with all development works. Administrators often think of disasters in terms of safety and security, but it is much broader than that. It may include safety and security risk, natural disasters, industrial and technology related disasters, human induced disasters and after effects of an incident etc. Disaster management is the process of identifying vulnerability of such disasters, assessing and managing them.
Considering disasters as the big risk to which our cities are vulnerable the administration should accord top priority its management. The process of Disaster Management should involve the following four steps:
1. Identifying the risks of disasters and hazards in the locality
It is ascertaining when and how a disaster might occur and its probable resulting consequences. It is important to view disaster broadly in terms of natural, man-made, hybrid and hazards that represent potential risk of disaster e.g.
· Fire
· Plant and equipment
· Hazardous substances
· Electrical equipment
· Spills & leakages
· Temporary fencing, staging and events
· Moving vehicles
· Terrorist's activities
· Buildings and structures such as dams etc.
Brainstorming by the disaster management team of the locality will help enormously in identifying potential disaster risks. Research of past history of disaster patterns can contribute to a detailed list of possible disasters.
2. Prioritizing the disasters to which the locality is vulnerable in terms of its vulnerability and hazardousness.
Once the potential risks of disaster have been identified, their likelihood of occurring needs to be evaluated. This allows the team to prioritize the disasters for attention. The risks of disasters should also be considered in terms of coming events and forecasting. For example during the event of Kumbh Mela lacks of people collect to have a holy bath in river Ganga. Here the likely risks of disasters are:
· Stampede
· Bomb Explosion
· Flooding
· Communal riots of group clashes
· Use of chemical or biological weapons by anti social elements or terrorists.
· Food poisoning


3. Managing the risks of disasters and hazards.
Once the risks of likelihood of disasters have been prioritized, the final step is to look at the most effective ways of managing them. Some of the measures may include:
· Administrative Control :(e.g. activating warning signs, training of rescue workers and creating awareness among the people who are vulnerable to the disasters).
· Eliminating plans and projects to eliminate the risk of disaster altogether : (e.g. closing or shifting of plants like methyl-iso-cynide plant in Bhopal and Chernobyl nuclear plant in Russia).
· Substituting plans : (e.g. using mud made disposal teacups instead of plastic cups by Indian Railway which were supposed to create health hazards).
· Isolation plans : (e.g. isolating dangerous or noisy equipments, machinery or plants from localities vulnerable to disasters).
· Security control : (e.g. using safety barriers to limit access and control crowds and unwanted elements at disaster risk sites).
· Contingency plans : (e.g. developing evacuation plans for disastrous situations which can not be avoided).
This process allows the administration to establish and prioritize the vulnerability of disasters in the locality, to take steps to prevent disasters occurring and to make contingency plans if disasters do occur.
Also the country should have an integrated disaster management structure which should include both central and state agencies which should work in coordination with each other as well as development and planning agencies. At the same time there is need of emergency warning and an active response team.
A better management structure for the preparedness : before, during and after the disaster should be developed and proper strategies should be made to cope up with disaster situations.
Before Disaster : The preparedness plans before the disasters may include :
· Creating awareness among people.
· Training of rescue workers and common masses.
· Developing warning signals and alarms.
· Scientific Research and Development regarding early warning signals of coming disasters.
· Managing stores, inventories, equipments and human resources to cope up with disaster in case it occurs.
· Designing safety routes, safe zones and evacuation plans for collapse structures.
· Periodic mock exercise to provide disaster inoculation to the rescue workers and the people vulnerable to it.
· Contingency plans.
· Forecasting.
During Disasters
· The preparedness plans during the disaster may include :-
· Early warning signals.
· Immediate response of rescue teams.
· Effective transport arrangement system.
· Effective communication system.
· Effective law, order and security systems.
· Coordination among various rescue, relief and security agencies.
After Disaster
The preparedness plans after the disaster may include:-
· Rehabilitation works.
· Arranging refugee camps.
· Medications and hospital facilities.
· Assessing and mitigating the after effects of disaster.
· Immediate restoration of transport, communication and electricity systems if they have been destroyed.
To cope up with the disasters alternate strategies should also be made at the time of preparedness, which depends upon the terrain, climate, population, time, date and day of the disaster.
Lack of awareness regarding the preparedness for disasters among the common masses is the main cause of heavy losses. Along with better management structure for preparedness, before, during and after the disaster, the common masses should be given awareness regarding various disasters they are vulnerable and should be trained for acting as first responders by having knowledge and skills of immediate medical facilities, basic search and rescue techniques, safety routes and zones, reacting to warning systems and signals. This training can be imparted through, schools, colleges, universities, camps organized by government and various NGO's, etc. Remember, in India, we are sitting on the dynamite of disaster, which can explode anytime without pre-warning.

Dr. Jog Singh Bhatia